And to help you out, we ranked all 32 teams ahead of this season by the value on the odds they'll win the Super Bowl.. The better defense in the Super Bowl usually wins - SBNation.com FPI believes there is an 8% chance that the Chiefs face the Bucs again, more than any other potential matchup. This Super Bowl had it all: An underdog story (Nick Foles), a memorable play (Philly Special), a controversial coaching decision (Belichick benching Malcolm Butler), a ton of points (a record 74 points combined!) 19. In fact, he is widely regarded as one of the worst starting quarterbacks to ever win a Super Bowl. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to Its more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances., 24. 32. To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). Give them five years to become a dynasty. Detroit Lions +12500 (bet $10 to win $1260 total), There is a universe in which the Lions ride an inspired Jared Goff and underrated defensive talent to seven or eight wins., But the schedule is brutal six road games against playoff teams from 2020! Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. Philadelphia Eagles +7500 (bet $10 to win $760 total), The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. 20. Not having Wentz is certainly a downgrade: FPI's predictive quarterback rating system believes backup Jacob Eason's mean projected season is roughly on par with Wentz's (poor) 2020 campaign. 5. As Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers went back and forth to win the title, Super Bowl LIV is the 13th-best Super Bowl on our list. Houston Texans +20000 (bet $10 to win $2010 total), Lowest win total on the board, uncertainty at QB, and a defense that cant stop a nose bleed.. "Broadway Joe" completed just 49.2 percent of his passes during the season and threw two more interceptions (17) than he did touchdowns (15). There was a reason the Colts were heavily favored going into the big game: The Jets were not all that good. There have been some very random teams that reached the conference championship game in recent years (Titans and 49ers, 2020; Jaguars and Vikings 2018), though. Dolphins fullback Larry Csonka plows between Vikings LB Jeff Siemon (50) and safety Paul Krause for one of his two touchdowns in the Dolphins 24-7 Super Bowl VIII win. The 10 Worst NFL Teams to Ever Win a Super Bowl - Sportscasting FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). They had an unimpressive 115 record, but the 2002 Raiders were a well-balanced, finely tuned machine. Over the past three years, Cousins is seventh in passer rating (103.6), second in completion percentage (69.03), fifth in passing touchdowns (91), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.77). 17. The NFC West features three of FPI's top 10 teams in the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, and the 21st-ranked Cardinals aren't necessarily an easy out, either. Im all aboard the Trevor Lawrence bandwagon., 8. Defense wins championshipsor at least they should. People think of Kerry Collins when they think of this 124 Giants squad, but this defense was the real story. A.J. Tannehill is second in the league in passer rating (110.6), second in touchdown percentage (7.2) and first in yards per attempt (8.55). They had one of the league's best defenses that year. A 15-1 team, losing to the Atlanta Falcons by a single touchdown, the 2015 Carolina Panthers were a dominant offensive force with an underrated defense. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. Take note: This isn't technically a ranking of the teams from very worst to very best, although the worse teams tend to be toward the bottom and the better teams toward the top. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. Eli Manning did it to the Patriots again. A 133 record, and a top 5 offense and defense, this was the derailing of a potential dynasty. Well, they play in a division that produced three playoff teams last year. Peyton Mannings struggles reinforced the notion that he could be great in the regular season but collapsed in the playoffs. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. But the outputs are all the same: We're still talking football -- and about the chances of each team's success -- which now includes 17 regular-season games and an expanded playoff field. One could argue the Steelers have the worst QB in the division in 39-year old Ben Roethlisberger, who had 10 interceptions in the teams final seven games. They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. And the NFC South doesn't have any other teams ranked in FPI's top 10. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. There were great pieces, but the team was not performing at its peak. As a Jets fan, I could build a flimsy case for the Jets to make the playoffs; I cant even fathom them having a shot at the Super Bowl. Dallas got out to an early 10-point lead and never looked back. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. It was the biggest upset in football history for a reason. It's all about the schedule. But it wasn't always so certain that FPI would give Green Bay the love. The universe wont let the Vikings back in the Super Bowl because all of the ones they made in the 70s ended up being unwatchable. edit: grammar But a lot of credit needs to be given to running backs Ickey Woods and James Brooks, who both combined for 1,997 yards and 29 touchdowns. This isn't entirely a reflection on them, though FPI is never particularly bullish on rookie quarterbacks. I much prefer the Eagles to maybe sneak into the playoffs, as their only road game this season against a playoff team from last year is at Washington on Jan. 2. US residents can opt out of "sales" of personal data. Is the offensive line good enough to protect Burrow from getting hurt again? Theres a reason teams from the NFC North are so low here, and its the schedule. QB | RB | WR | TE If not for the dramatic ending, this game may have finished last on this list. TEAM DATE ROUND TM OPP RESULT W TD 1DWN OFF OPP OFF 3DWN% 4DWN% Los Angeles Rams: 2/13/2022: Super Bowl: LAR @ CIN. However, like most teams on this list, the Steelers had one glaring deficiency: the passing game. Terry Bradshaw and Franco Harris took over the game from there. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). The Bills ended up with the most wins in a season (13) since 1991. Unfortunately, they lost both starting tackles for the Super Bowl and could not stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beast-mode pass rush. The 2005 Steelers are a prime example. 12:11 pm ET, NFL combine 2023 tracker: Top performances, highlights, Jones assures Cowboys still interested in Beckham, NFL Combine 2023: Colossal Richardson breaks QB records, NFL combine measurements: Full list of WR, TE numbers, Jackson Mahomes accused of assault at Kansas restaurant, Agent's Take: Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Teams that never won SB that have best chance in 2021, Mock Draft: Panthers, Colts trade up for QBs, Rodgers' trade value, logistics, best fit, Richardson breaks QB record in vertical jump, Pascal robbed at gunpoint, assaulted; WR 'doing fine', Bryce Young measures similar to former No. The game lacked memorable moments but is significant because it was Elways last. The worst of the Bills Super Bowl teams at 115, but Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas still elevated them offensively. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. Trent Dilfer. He's a key piece in guiding Tennessee to its first championship. The Chiefs win They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. Both of those teams went on to lose in the Super Bowl. New head coach Arthur Smith has some work to do this summer. 6-keys: media/spln/nfl/reg/free/stories, at And they should open 2-0, meaning their odds will get even shorter., Too much turnover on the offensive line for my liking, though, as 37-year old Aaron Rodgers will open the season with three new starters., 7. 1 pick. Any NFL fan intuitively knows that basing strength of schedule on the previous season's record is a fool's errand because teams' abilities change too much from year to year to go off that, not to mention the fact that a single NFL season is not always a great indicator for the talent of a team. Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. This was the year that Joe Montana and Steve Young alternated starts at quarterback until eventually Montana firmly took the reins down the stretch. The Chiefs defense also surrendered 31 points. It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. worst The NFC, with two of the top six teams in FPI rating, is a little less threatening than the AFC. Even the worst of the second-place teams showed they could have won it all. 23. 16. The Titans defense added Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley, but it may not be enough to make the the 24th-ranked unit (in points allowed) Super Bowl-caliber. The Texans did finish 4-12 last season, even as Watson reached career highs in completion percentage (70.2), passing yards (4,823), touchdown passes (33). WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. worst team defense to win a super bowl The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI It has to be the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. Up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they couldn't hold off the Patriots in the biggest game of the year Some may argue this should be higher than third, but, before Scott Norwoods infamous miss, the Giants and Bills did not give us a very exciting game. The NFC West is loaded, but the Cardinals have the talent to win the division. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. Historically, those are difficult to duplicate.. Cleveland hasn't been in a position to win a Super Bowl since Bernie Kosar led the franchise to consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances in the mid-1980s. Ill assume you didnt watch the Slightly. Adding Marvin Jones to a young receiving unit that already includes Laviska Shenault Jr. and D.J. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. With a hostage crisis in Iran taking attention away from the game, the Raiders and Eagles made sure Americans too concerned to tune into a football game didnt miss much. The NFL regular season begins in just days. Even without Wentz, the forecast for that stretch is better than one might guess; on average, the Colts win 2.2 of those games, and the chances that they start 0-5 is just over 1 in 20. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels. Carolina Panthers +7000 (bet $10 to win $710 total), The Panthers were a fantastic 8-4 against the spread as an underdog last year, and theyre going to be underdogs frequently again this year. Detroit has a young and talented offensive line (average age 24 years old) to protect new quarterback Jared Goffwho is looking to resurrect his career after getting traded by the Los Angeles Rams. This year, theres a chance theyre 4-0 heading into a week five game against the Cowboys. The Patriots dynasty started with a massive upset that ended with a Tom Brady game-winning drive and clutch kick by Adam Vinatieri. The 11 Worst Quarterbacks To Win A Super Bowl Philly was actually favored before the game, but Oakland made the betting line look silly early on, getting out to a 21-3 lead. The game wasnt nearly as close as the score indicates, though. Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more, FOX SPORTS, SPEED, SPEED.COM & 2023 Fox Media LLC and Fox Sports Interactive Media, LLC. Id say so, yes.. The market is super high on Buffalo theyre only underdogs in two games, vs Tampa and KC but there likely will be some form of regression. One yard away from not even being on this list, the 133 Titans were solid. Cowboys linebacker Chuck Howley was awarded that honor (one that he refused to accept). Their defense back in the day was shutting teams down and they had great leadership in Fran Tarkenton. More NFL coverage . This game gave us one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history: John Riggins taking a 4th-and-one run to the house to help seal Joe Gibbs first Super Bowl win. Atlanta is going to miss Jones' big-play ability -- and has a defense set to give up big plays of its own. At 10-4-1, this Broncos team was better balanced than the '86 team. The wild card is first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who probably is an upgrade over Anthony Lynn but hes only been in the NFL since 2017, so how could anyone say for sure? In the end, FPI's projections for the Colts are not all that bad; they have a 44% chance to win the AFC South (second to the Titans) and a 59% shot to make the postseason. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. Jaguars won't spend big, but here are five players they could target in free agency, The most memorable pre-NFL draft workouts ever: Coaches, scouts, execs make their picks, 2023 NFL franchise tag tracker: Raiders tag Josh Jacobs, the NFL's rushing leader. Why? Self care and ideas to help you live a healthier, happier life. By contrast, FPI is bullish on Cleveland's offense -- which ranks third in the league behind the Chiefs and Packers but ahead of the Bills -- but gives the Browns the 18th-best defense. So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. ), or the second-half Seahawks (only topped 30 points once in the final seven games, and it was vs the hapless Jets)?, Seattle has lost three of its past four playoff games and not made the NFC title game since 2014., 11. NFL season projections 2021: Win-loss records, playoff and Super The Jets just didn't look all that good on their way to the mountaintop. Reggie White was downright unblockable. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. The first of the Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowls gave us those beautiful NFL Films shots of Lynn Swanns acrobatic catch. Which is a shame, because this 11-4-1 team had a defense that was really impressive throughout the year. The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. Indianapolis Colts +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total), Preseason surgery to Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson could put the Colts down for the count before the calendar turns to October.. 1) How is coach Zac Taylor going to go from 6-25-1 to the Super Bowl? The game did not feature nearly as dramatic an ending as the rest of the top-10, but it was a game full of Hall of Famers all playing at a high level. NFL fans would have to get used that kind of ending. Boomer Esiason and the Bengals were the most productive offense in 1988. WebWhat was the worst NFL offensive team to win a Super Bowl? Worst Team Defense To Win A Super Bowl | StatMuse Division favorites, win totals and the NFL's best (and worst) teams: Takeaways from the 2021 projections, The future of the NFL combine: Is there really a chance it could end forever? Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. Unsung, their defense only allowed 17.1 points per game. They stole all-pro center Corey Linsley from the Packers and drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round.. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. Four teams have yet to even reach the Super Bowl (two of them started as a franchise after 1990). Buffalo also addedEmmanuel Sanders to the mix, making the passing game even more formidable. Going 7-2 in one-score games last year will regress. The Bucs, despite not being quite on Kansas City's level, remain the favorite in the NFC and are the only other team to cross double digits in terms of chances to win the Super Bowl. An 11-win team with only 20.3 points per game. W. 23-20. Even if Kevin Dyson had pulled a Michael Jordan in Space Jam and reached the ball over the goal line, the game would have gone to overtime. Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020). They had a top 5 offense and defense. The Lions are the next-most likely team to earn the No. Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. There's enough depth to get by. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). And yet it was Desmond Howard who took home the MVP award thanks to his game-clinching kickoff return. The Cardinals added more playmakers to surround Murray this offseason with A.J. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. It all makes for a nice story, but the fact remains that the Giants were not a superb team. Denver came in with a historically good offense. and quarterback rating (112.4). 12. All rights reserved. 1980 was also the final year of "Stickum" being allowed in the NFL, and cornerback Lester Hayes used it to his full advantage, reeling off 18 interceptions in 20 games. Just when the Falcons appeared to have a team set to contend for a playoff berth in 2021, Atlanta traded Julio Jonesto the Titans for draft picks. Sam Darnold cannot go from worst QB in the NFL (by some metrics) to winning the Super Bowl in twelve months. and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. It was easily the sloppiest Super Bowl of all-time. If we made Lance the starter or partial starter, it would hurt the 49ers' projection because the model assumes Lance is a little worse than Garoppolo, as of now. 10 wins in a 14-game season, and this was easily the least impressive of Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. Ah, the iconic image of Trent Dilfer hoisting his arms in victory. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre. Atlanta Falcons +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total), New coach, new offensive coordinator just too much newness for me., That being said, going 2-8 in one-score games last year was a killer, and if the ball bounces differently in 2021, maybe theyre hovering around .500. And we dont even know who their QB is (probably Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock).. You may have been expecting one of the more famous Super Bowl results to land a little higher on the list. Osi Umenyiora was the team's only starting Pro Bowler and the Giants trailed in every postseason game they played. Top 5 in both points for and against, the Vikings 10-win record kept them from being higher on this list. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. 6) Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ryan Tannehill has been a top five quarterback over the last two seasons and it hasn't been talked about enough. Search, watch, and cook every single Tasty recipe and video ever - all in one place! Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba It did earn him a bunch of money. This isn't just about winning the closely contested division, though. This time, he didnt need a miracle catch to beat New England thanks to his sublime pass to Mario Manningham on the game-winning drive. Theyre basically the 2020 Patriots, who lost a Hall of Fame QB, had a ton of opt-outs defensively (the Saints lost five key contributors to free agency), and have no receivers (given the Michael Thomas surgery). The Philadelphia Eagles were the most recent team to leave the "never won a Super Bowl" club, but the league only has three first-time Super Bowl winners since the start of the 2009 season. Kansas City will be this team's measuring stick, as the Chiefs are the only roster more talented than Buffalo's in the AFC. That they have to play each other twice and are vying for the same divisional crown are limiting factors when it comes to win total and a chance to earn the coveted top seed in the AFC. This team is starting to scratch the surface of its potential.
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